Importance to economics Common cause and special cause (statistics)

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in economics, circle of ideas referred under rubric of knightian uncertainty . john maynard keynes , frank knight both discussed inherent unpredictability of economic systems in work , used criticise mathematical approach economics, in terms of expected utility, developed ludwig von mises , others. keynes in particular argued economic systems did not automatically tend equilibrium of full employment owing agents inability predict future. remarked in general theory of employment, interest , money:


... living , moving beings, forced act ... [even when] our existing knowledge not provide sufficient basis calculated mathematical expectation.


keynes thinking @ odds classical liberalism of austrian school of economists, g. l. s. shackle recognised importance of keynes s insight , sought formalise within free-market philosophy.


in financial economics, black swan theory of nassim nicholas taleb based on significance , unpredictability of special-causes.







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